RANDOM MUSINGS FROM THE TOP OF THE HILL

11/23/2018

VENEZUELA

Venezuela sits on the north end of South America - less than 900 miles from Puerto Rico.  It has the largest oil reserves in the world . . . and yet, their economy is crumbling.  Inflation is so rampant that almost no one can afford minimum daily food or medicine; basic goods are hard to find even if you do have money.  Prices of goods double every 26 days.  Economic watch organizations feel the country is in a death spiral from which it cannot escape.  Inflation is expected to reach 100,000% by the end of the year. (For reference, our inflation rate is about 2%) 

In the last 3 years, three million people have left their homeland - emigrating elsewhere in South America.  That is 10% of their population.

The current socialist government of President Maduro is not equipped to handle the problems.  They are equipped to strangle any dissent from within the country.  Obvious charges of malfeasance against the government would never be brought.  Only huge spikes in the price of oil would help - but that is not in our future. 

How did they get in such a fix?   Venezuela has had a socialist government for 19 years.  It sells oil to the world and imports all other goods it needs.  No manufacturing base besides oil was ever developed.  Now the price of oil is low and the demand is falling and the U.S. is producing more and more of what it needs. 

The government increased minimum wages to keep the citizenry happy.  The government prints more money when the citizenry needs money.  These two things fire the flames of inflation.  Printing more money and paying higher wages cannot keep up with the cost of goods.  Kaboom!

It will be interesting to see what happens.  If you hear something about Venezuela on the news, listen closely - it could be big.
🛢



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